Monday, September 29, 2008

this is what the phrase "oh fucking shit here we go again" looks like in a numeric schematic

Yeah when everything is red in the "Net Change" column that don't feel so good. today's massively vomitous Dow drop of -778 points is the worst of all time. While all point drops are relative, and the market has dropped more than today's epic -6.98%, it's not exactly much of a silver lining....afterall the S&P drop of -8.79% is the worst since Black Monday in 1987.


This is what it looks like when people in DC dick around and shmucks think that a Fed rescue package is just being done to bail out Wall Street. I'm sorry, but worrying about executive compensation is missing the much bigger picture. If normal people can't get loans, can't safely invest their money, and generally aren't able to work for companies that can, that's a bad thing for everyone.

When Christmas time comes and you see stores having massive shortages, you'll know the reason why: Companies are not able to borrow money now to pay for goods that they can sell later; if you can only afford to pay for things that you can sell right away then you will never be able to build up supplies.

You think I'm pissed? Yeah I'm pissed. I just used a fucking semi-colon in that last sentence without you guys even noticing it. That's how I pissed I am.

I'm 97% sure that it wasn't even the appropriate usage of one, I was just trying to prevent a run-on sentence that Mrs. Wesley in 6th grade used to warn me about. Suck on that Mrs. Wesley. Suck on that.

Now the dipfucks will mess around for at least 3 days doing nothing....until at some point they provide a bill which is less effective.

Finally who is the assclown that thinks a $700bn bill means that it's going to cost Americans $700bn? Idiots. The money is being used to buy physical assets. Unless the value of every single home they purchase falls to zero, there's no way they're going to come close to a cost of that amount. Meanwhile we have fucktard Congressmen who ask "well Secretary Paulson, how much will this cost?" Well here's a newsflash Einstein, the cost or profit is simply going to be the difference between where we bought the assets and where we ultimately sell them. If you don't know when you're gonna sell them you can't ever know what the cost is. But what you CAN know is that if we're buying shit at firesale prices, at times below the cost of the raw materials to make a house, it's a pretty good sign that there's only upside to be had.

And why can't private companies do this?....Because they have to report these assets on their balance sheet every quarter. Quite simply they can't afford to just have these assets sit their for 2-3 years while their value rises. Governments don't have to worry about that. Besides, companies that do have these assets are being destroyed by the stock market for no good reason. The numbers simply don't make sense, and yet anyone with a hint of even a little bit of exposure is watching their stock price tank in the double digits.

The government isn't going to buy all the loans, but they're going to buy some to start creating a pricing floor. Once a real functioning market is nurtered private money can come off the sidelines. That's the key. Otherwise in the meantime you have bids on property at like 10 cents on the dollar....not because someone has done a bunch of analysis and ascertained that the true value of a foreclosesd home in Ohio is 11 cents on the dollar and they're going to make a 1 cent profit....but rather because there is no other buyer. If you have no competition and you're bidding on something you're gonna bid a pretty low price.

Haven't you watched "The Price Is Right" before? Some moron from New Mexico wins half of the bids from Contestant's Row because they put in a bid of $1. It's not because they really think that the Espresso Maker that Barker's beauties just modeled is really worth a buck. Look I don't like blank checks to any Federal agency, but doing nothing would be criminal.

The Nikkei is down 4.64% in Asian trading and Dow Futures (basically a contract where people can take views on where they think our market will open up at tomorrow morning) are flat. Global badness.

deep breath. deep breath.

There, I'm done. Only 8 more hours until I'm back at work.

4 comments:

surya said...

this is a pretty great entry. in a pretty shitty time. hopefully we'll have a bill by friday. jesus.

Rush said...

I like the use of the word fucktard. It is appropriate and also doesn't get you in trouble at work because it's a compound word using two derrogatory words slammed together. Plus, it demonstrates how angry you really are.

Shakes said...

thank you thank you. i think fucktard is one of the better hybrid curse words out there. it beats assfucker by a country mile

Ami said...

This commentary is awesome. If only you could be alongside the tightwad anchors on CNN...